Monday, March 05, 2007

BIG TEN TOURNAMENT PREVIEW

This year's Big Ten tourney is wide open, mostly because of mediocre play, but also because of the fact that everybody in this conference is so evenly matched. If you take out Ohio State and Penn State then there really isn't that much disparity. One game separates Indiana, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, and Iowa. The Wolverines could easily be the No. 3 seed in the conference tournament, but they drop to 8 because of their loss to Ohio State. What I am trying to say is that postseason play in the Big Ten should be very exciting.

GAME 1: Michigan vs. Minnesota
I recently asked Terry Hutchens what is wrong with the Michigan Wolverines and he told me it was the "Tommy Amaker Factor". I mean they have four senior leaders, guys that have been through a lot. They had to go through the year when they were suspended from postseason play, a year where they may have made the tournament. I believe Dion Harris leads the Wolverines to a huge victory over the Gophers in this one, increasing the chances of an NCAA tournament bid.
Final Score: Michigan 77 Minnesota 59

GAME 2: (7) Michigan State vs. (10) Northwestern
JMV said it best when he said that Northwestern has absolutely no talent, they just play with heart. Well, heart alone doesn't get you too far in Big Ten basketball, so the Spartans should have a cake walk here, provided they don't all catch the flu! Michigan State wins in a game that is closer then it should have been and punch their ticket to the dance.
Final Score: Michigan State 71 Northwestern 62

GAME 3: (6) Illinois vs. (11) Penn State
I think you could make the argument that Illinois has one of the most athletic teams in the conference, if not in the nation. Rich McBride is a very good perimeter player, while Shawn Pruitt has the potential to be a monster inside. But the Illini have underachieved a little bit this season, and still have something to prove. I think they come out and get it done against the Nittany Lions, despite 20+ points from Geary Claxton.
Final Score: Illinois 72 Penn State 68

GAME 4: (1) Ohio State vs. (8) Michigan
If there's one thing I've learned from watching Big Ten tournaments in the past it's that the top seed usually is unmotivated. It will be very easy for the Buckeyes just to rest up for the Big Dance, and I could see that happening. But Michigan will run out of gas late in the game because of playing back to back days, and will fall in the closing seconds on a basket by Ron Lewis.
Final Score: Ohio State 75 Michigan 73

GAME 5: (4) Iowa vs. (5) Purdue
To tell you the truth, I really don't know what to expect in this game. Both the Hawkeyes and the Boilers have been streaky this season, so it's hard to predict what they are likely to do. I'm going to give the edge to Purdue because I think Teague and Landry really want to end their college careers in the NCAA Tournament, and that is not going to happen unless they win this game. It will be close, but a late Boilermaker run lifts them to victory.
Final Score: Purdue 64 Iowa 58

GAME 6: (2) Wisconsin vs. (7) Michigan State
I don't know if there is a game in this tournament that I am looking forward too more then this one. These two teams have met twice in the last couple of weeks, each team winning one. The Spartans very easily could be 2-0 against the Badgers, but Kammeron Taylor had different ideas on Saturday afternoon. I'm expecting this to be another close one, but you have to give the edge to Wisconsin because of Alando Tucker.
Final Score: Wisconsin 74 Michigan State 71

GAME 7: (3) Indiana vs. (6) Illinois
This is a huge game for both parties, you could make arguments both ways. If the Illini lose then I still expect them to get into the tournament, which I why I think this one is more important to the Hoosiers. If they could win this game, and at least perform well in the semi-final, then they could greatly increase their seeding in the NCAA Tournament. For Indiana to make it past the second round, it needs to be at least a No. 7 seed, preferably 6 or higher. If it has to play a No. 1 seed in the second round it could be ugly. Because of that fact, the Hoosiers will come out playing inspired and erase a double figure deficit to win this one.
Final Score: Indiana 70 Illinois 66

GAME 8: (1) Ohio State vs. (5) Purdue
I think this game will be closer then expected, but the Buckeyes will get the win because of Oden inside. Landry will have trouble staying out of foul trouble, and Teague will struggle from the outside. Ohio State makes another run into the Big Ten Championship hoping it won't end like it did last year.
Final Score: Ohio State 78 Purdue 69

GAME 9: (2) Wisconsin vs. (3) Indiana
The Hoosiers got the best of the Badgers in their first meeting, and they could do it again if a couple of things happen. First, Rod Wilmont and A.J. Ratliff have to continue to be aggressive. Both have disappeared at times this season, and that can't happen if they want to beat Wisconsin. They were extremely aggressive in the win over Penn State, allowing the Hoosiers to put up a season high 94 points. The second thing that must happen is D.J. White must be a factor inside. Teams that do well in tournaments have to have an inside and outside presence. I think he can handle the Badgers, especially Butchless, so the Hoosiers win a tough battle.
Final Score: Indiana 68 Wisconsin 67

GAME 10: (1) Ohio State vs. (3) Indiana
I wish I could tell you that the Hoosiers were going to come in and play their best game of the year and beat the Buckeyes, but I can't. I see Ohio State controlling the game from start to finish, and handing Indiana a double figure loss. The Hoosiers shouldn't feel bad though because they have greatly improved their stock for the dance.
Final Score: Ohio State 78 Indiana 67

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